Influenced Decisions

We all think our decisions are made in a professional and rational manner.

Too bad, nothing is less is true! Decisions are strongly influenced by the way we present our proposals.


Influenced Decisions
In a splendid TED Video Presentation called 'Are we in control of our own decisions' (half an our fun and learning!) , Dan Ariely, an Israeli professor of behavioral economics and head of the eRationality research group at the MIT Media Lab, shows the astonishing effect of how decisions can be fundamentally changed by adding dummies in proposals:

First experiment
Ariely tested the next ad on the website of the Economist.com on a group of 100 MIT students:

As expected, most students wanted the combo deal (84%). Students can read, so nobody wanted the middle option.

But now, if you have an option nobody wants, you can take it off. Right? So Ariely tested another version of this ad on another group of students, eliminating the middle option. This is what happened:

Now the most popular option (84%) suddenly became the least popular (32%). And the least popular (16%) became the most popular (68%) option.

What happened was that the 'useless' option in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it. But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out what they wanted. In fact, relative to the option in the middle, which was get only the print for $125, the print and web for $125 looked like a fantastic deal. And as a consequence, people chose it.

The general idea here is that we actually don't know our preferences that well. And because we don't know our preferences that well we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces.

Second experiment
People believe that when they see somebody, they immediately know whether they like that person or not. Ariely decided to put this statement to the test.

He showed his students a picture of Tom and a picture of Jerry (real people in practice). Then he asked "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?" But for half the people he added a slightly less attractive (photoshopped) version of Jerry. For the other half of the students he added a slightly less attractive (ugly) version of Tom.

Now the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom help their respective, more attractive brothers?

The answer was absolutely YES. When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular. When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.


Conclusions: The Dummy Effect
What can we conclude from these two experiments?

• When you let people chose between two options, their decision might be positively influenced by adding a third 'slightly less attractive version' (the dummy) of the option you value as most favorable. So decisions are susceptible to options manipulation.
  
  
• Be aware of the Dummy-Effect when someone adds a dummy option in a choice you'll have to make. If your decision without the dummy is not the same as with the dummy option, try to investigate why. Don't take a decision until you've found out why.
  
  
• Both decisions, with or without dummies, are 'rational'.
  Therefore your 'rational decision' depends more than you're inclined you think on the character, the completeness and the description of the options. Your personal preference becomes more or less irrelevant if the options are incomplete. So think twice about possible 'missing options' before you take a final decision.

From now on...
Now that you've become aware of this dummy-effect, life will never be the same again. You've become conscious of the way the options in a proposal can influence a decision. This gives you the opportunity to take more enriched decisions. It also places you in a more responsible position when you develop proposals for others. Straight proposals will be 'cleaner' than before ('undummied') and also include an explanation about the way a proposal is structured and presented.

Links
- Book Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
- MIT Center for future banking

When to decide?

In life you'll have to take all kind of decisions. Easy or tuff decisions, you'll always try to take the right decision or the best choice.
Even a indecision is a kind of decision.

Although there's a list of traditional Decision Making Techniques, the decision you take depends heavily on the moment of decision.



Almost any personal decision process consists of several phases

• The Good Idea Phase
  Often it 'starts with' a good idea or an opportunity or possible decision (for solving a problem) that 'looks like' a 'good idea'.
  Deciding in this stage could be qualified as : Impulsive.
  For small decisions this 'way of deciding' could work out fine. If the decision is successful, you enjoy it. It has the opportunity of incidentally creating a great unexpected success. If it turns out wrong, you just throw the idea away and you're not disappointed.
  
  
• The However Phase
  In this phase you quickly focus on the possible disadvantages of this 'good idea'.
  By deciding in this stage you reduce the amount of downside risk of your decision from your own perspective.
  Deciding in this face is more balanced and suits decisions with medium sized (personal) risks.
  
  
• The On the other Hand Phase
  In this phase you focus on the advantages of the 'good idea'.
  Taking a decision in this phase, leads to rational decisions with respect to your own environment.
  
  
• The But my Heart says Phase
  Now you take your 'gutfeeling' into the decision process.
  What your heart says, is taken into account.
  Deciding in this phase leads to emotional balanced decisions. Watch out for 'too much emotional arguments in your final decision'.
  
  
• The What Others say Phase
  In this stage you include 'what other people think or would decide' in your decision.
  An advice of a good friend that knows you well could perhaps make you conscious of your pitfalls or blind spots.
  Watch out for 'getting dependent' in this stage. It's mostly wise to listen to our 'true friends', keep making your own decisions.
  
  
• The I must take a Decision Phase
  Often we don't have to decide, but we feel we do.
  We get desperate. Weighting all facts of the idea or problem still on leads to a fifty-fifty situation.
  Deciding in this phase (deciding 'something'), concerning ideas with big consequences, often leads to dividement, separation and chaos.
  Go back to what you would have had decided in the rational phase or become enlightened and decide nothing until destiny decides for you.
  
  
• The Zen Phase
  When we are conscious of everything, we'll take no decisions at all. We know and accept that 'taking decisions' is the same as sailing a boat in a tropical storm: It helps, it's certainly important, but the sea is in charge and 'decides'. So be sure to choose the right sea!

Sometimes there are other ways on how to decide, like:
The Best Decisions a Person Can Make

• Decide to decide
• Decide to build character
• Decide to pursue the best option
• Decide to forgive
• Decide to always get better
  
  

Anyhow, be conscious about the timing of decisions !

Zorro Decisions

In times of change, success depends, more than ever, on taking the right decisions that have the support of your team or family.
Because of the importance of such decisions, by nature we're not inclined to take any alternative or more risky solutions. Instead we go on 'Save' and base our decision on our passed experiences and our preferred and filtered ways of taking in information and making decisions.

As team or family member we all are selective in what we see or hear. More over, in changing times most of us avoid unnecessary conflict. Neither do we like extra challenge, as our bow cannot always be bent. We're captured in what is called our confirmation bias.

To prevent possible failures in decision making, it's important to include the different views and (decision) qualities of our team (family) members in a balanced way.

To help to make better and more considered decisions, we may use the so called Z-Technique, that Sue Nash uses in her action learning programs. This technique is based on the Myers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI).

To remember it better, Steve Roesler , related this technique, that he called 'Decision z', to the tv and movie character Zorro. So we might call it the 'Zorro Decision' technique.

The Zorro Decision technique is based on 4 steps:

• Sensing
  Walk through and write down all possible facts and factual details.
• Intuition
  Take a 'big picture' approach to think 'long term'.
  Write down all opportunities, possibilities, and connections between cause and effect.
• Thinking
  Write down and discuss all possible solutions. Each with their pros and cons, risks, benefits, consequences and likelihood.
• Feeling
  What impact does the decision have on other stakeholders or group members ( the 'people factor') How will you feel about the result? Will it gain support or meet opposition?

Remember Zorro next time you're about to take a group decision!

Sources: Sue Nash Consulting, Roesler Consulting Group

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